![]() Trying to ‘get good at breeding’ might be akin to getting good at flipping a coin and it might change in a few months due to breeding algo updates. This approach can also be used to create a pricing anchor for bred horses in the open market. This approach embraces that there is a random element to breeding and a black box genetic algo. Combining what has been stated by the ZED team, researched by the community and shown in data analysis of the 126k horses in the game. ZED can and has changed the algoĮxpected Value Breeding Theory is less a theory and more of a rational approach to breeding in the current landscape of ZED Run. Rule 2: Know the odds of a ‘winning’ horse.Rule 1: Bargain hunt for base ability - don’t pay for pedigree (name/win rate/speed/dist preference).Thanks to a recent update to the filtered horse queries it is now possible to quickly calculate ‘winning’ horses vs total bred population. The expected value of a breed is calculated by factoring in breed cost, racing cost, donkey floor for breed type balanced against the actual odds of getting a ‘winning’ horse based on the current bred population. The goal of Expected Value Breeding Theory is to optimize for the highest quality breed attempts at the lowest possible price. It is more practical math than it is theory but it is more likely to catch on to call it a theory in ZED world. The Expected Value Breeding Theory is a practical way to breed in an uncertain environment for new and growing stables that doesn’t require an advanced stats program or a massive budget. By: Mostly Stable and the All About Affordable NFT podcast
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